Palin creates buzz but rivals bet she won't run
By Byron York….”The bottom line is Sarah Palin is not going to run for president,” says a Republican adviser close to front-runner Mitt Romney. “She’s making money, she’s moved on, she’s kind of an entertainer rather than a politician. She still has some sway with the grass roots, but she is not going to run.”
“I don’t think she’s going to run,” says a Republican close to Tim Pawlenty. “She has faded a lot in the last few months. I look at what she’s doing now and say that she’s found a way to get back in the story.”
Maybe these representatives of rival campaigns are just spinning. But the fact is, some of the most serious people in the 2012 Republican race don’t believe Palin will run. While the press looks at the former Alaska governor’s publicity operation, political pros look at her campaign operation, or, more accurately, her lack of a campaign operation.
“Watch what she has done,” says the Republican close to Romney. “Has she contacted one major donor across the country about putting together an organization? Has she talked to one member of the Republican National Committee about working for a campaign, or one governor, or one former governor about working for a campaign? The answer is no.”
Campaigns are filled with routine work. For example, on Thursday, the Pawlenty team sent out a message headlined, “Governor Pawlenty Unveils Florida Finance Team.” It’s not newsy, but it’s the kind of thing presidential campaigns have to do. Palin’s not doing it. There are no Palin campaign organizations in early primary and caucus states, or anywhere else, for that matter.
Nevertheless, the political world is filled with speculation about Palin’s intentions. Until recently, most Republican insiders believed she would not run. Then, in short order, came four signs that, to some observers, indicate that she will.
First, Palin reportedly has bought a house in Arizona, from which she could travel the country more easily than her current home in Alaska. Second, she plans a high-profile Memorial Day weekend campaign-style bus tour. (Drudge Report headline: “IT’S ON: PALIN HITS TRAIL.”) Third, she has cooperated in a new film biography made by a conservative director who plans a showing next month in Iowa. And fourth, she has added a couple of people to her staff.
Yes, all of those moves might ease the way for Palin to run for president. But they also help Palin do exactly what she’s doing now. Traveling around making paid speeches, promoting candidates, pushing books, appearing on television — all those are easier with a house in the lower 48, an even higher public profile than she has now, and a bigger staff. From that perspective, Palin’s recent activities don’t say anything about her presidential thinking. (Members of Palin’s tightly knit inner circle did not respond to my inquiries.)
There’s no doubt Palin is popular. In a new Gallup Poll of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, Palin is a close second, behind front-runner Romney and ahead of Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, Jon Huntsman, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul. But while Republican voters generally like Palin and agree with her conservative views, they don’t necessarily think she should jump into the race.
“I know a lot of people who would be inclined to go to a movie premiere, or a book signing, or go listen to her give a speech,” says a veteran GOP politico in Iowa, “but I don’t know a lot of people who are saying Sarah Palin needs to run.” The same is true in the other early states of New Hampshire and South Carolina, where some key GOP operatives view her chances with great skepticism.
It’s possible Palin is in fact running and believes she can do so in a way that’s never been done before. Maybe she can. It’s certainly been tried; in 2007, former Sen. Fred Thompson and a small group of aides conceived of a campaign that would rely on Internet videos, social media and lots of buzz to gain support, with less reliance on old-fashioned things like shaking hands, begging for money and courting state party chairmen. It didn’t work.
Of course, Palin is a far more ambitious politician than Thompson. But there is a law of gravity in politics. In a long race, you have to have an organizational foundation. Palin is fabulously successful at what she’s doing now. But if she believes she can defy political gravity, she’ll likely learn it can’t be done.
Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://washingtonexaminer.com/politics/2011/05/palin-creates-buzz-gives-no-sign-running#ixzz1NplDejjw
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